Fritz Schäffer did not need a tax estimator. The first Federal Minister of Finance 1949-57, it managed to achieve during his term, an increase of 8 billion DM, which today would be about 35 billion €. After storage of the "imperial war treasure" in the Spandau Citadel's thrifty budget financial policy of the Julius tower was called. To achieve such a result, it took the Catholic Bayer no external expertise. The " Working Group revenue estimate " consisting of the Federal Ministry of Finance, of Economy, the six "major economic institutions, the Federal Statistical Office, the German Federal Bank, the Advisory Council on the assessment of economic development, the country finance ministers and central municipal associations took until 1955 his work on. After Schaffer's credit was used for the Bundeswehr, since then there have been occasional at best a nearly balanced budget. The open-reported debt of the Federal Republic of Germany amounts to € 1.5 trillion. By Federal President Horst Köhler, in addition to the finance ministers of the only economist in Germany's highest offices of state (but with international experience in Eastern Europe Bank and International Monetary Fund) estimated, the hidden and open public debt (unfunded pension benefits for civil servants, not by future premium payments covered legal social security rights ) € to over 7 trillion. Reason enough to even put up with the insights apart, the estimate of the annual event brings us really. And that working group Tax estimate brings the Republic to celebrate. Almost infinite increase in expenditure will be made in federal and state views and desires of all kinds, and even raise the hardly justified.
meets twice a year, the cumulative economic expertise in the form of the working group. In May, a great forecast for the next 5 years is risky, early November, a few corrections to short-term view. But some also with a blur. Tax revenues in 2002 were about € 6 billion higher than it was on 6 November of that year expected by the expert group. This is an uncertainty of 3 billion € per month. For the year would give the extrapolated a corridor of around 36 billion €.
result on which years are around 120 billion € of variation. And where move that much euphoria additional € 87 billion revenue by 2011 announced by the Federal . And the homepage of the Federal Minister of Finance hastened to simultaneously make clear to the publication with a nice interactive graphic: bus a few Milliärdchen everything is already planned. Anyone who considers the short term, which another numerical example is kept:
The latest estimate, which may therefore prove to reality, is from the 2002 . At that time it was estimated that the federal tax revenue in 2006 to a whopping 231.3 €, 27.4 more than the actually achieved pale € 203 billion, almost the amount which was reported in the autumn of 2006 estimate for the year 2007 (€ 230.5 billion). Comparing the estimate of 2002 with the actual results, then a decrease of € 91.9 billion rich is solely responsible for the federal government. These are accounts for only € 6 billion more than the estimate minus the 2002nd Taking the 2001 totaled € 193.6 billion for the measure, the estimate would have an improvement over the real income (not estimates) had the effect of 98.8 billion €, which is more than the announced € 87 billion by 2012. Because the "district valuer" only the deviations of the last estimate with the actual results, identifies and otherwise ENVISAGES only on the difference between the respective estimates, basic and immunized it the result of his work against critics.
other words, it is no wonder that made Fritz Schäffer without the estimator circuit, the better fiscal policy. The knowledge gained by this group based on the quality of the central planning commission of the German Democratic Republic. Not the deviation from reality is measured, but by the Plan. In other words: The World as Will and Representation (see Schopenhauer) annually serves as the basis for the establishment of the state budget. This is already significant enough reason to doubt the usefulness of the instruments of German fiscal policy.
for the incorrect predictions, there are three reasons. First, the difficult about them is that they concern the future (Mark Twain) is. Then they try in a complex division of labor in world economic growth to predict. What impact on the world economy would have been announced but a nuclear attack by Iran on Israel. Or a terrorist attack on an oil terminal or a pipeline. Or a temporary boycott of Russian gas to Central Europe to enforce higher prices as against the Ukraine or Belarus. Or an earthquake. Or or or.
Second, the economy and the national income to grow not so linear. Usually take about exports faster than domestic demand. In this case, company profits and move their tax liability easily to foreign subsidiaries in which they are offsetting lower prices are charged. Then the tax revenue would rise less.
lag as the so-called employment threshold at 2.5% economic growth (that is, the growth is set from the back), so this is obviously decreased significantly by Hartz IV. At that time the unemployed received unemployment benefits in the second year, although that was financed by taxes, but still on previous earnings and living standards oriented. What is the tendency to take a lower paid job, not increased. The unemployment benefit II, however, is the same for all high and will only secure the "subsistence". This reduces the expected wage from which the unemployed are willing to work, to a level that is about 20% of Hartz IV and not 20% of ALG II The significant increase in employment in low economic growth but again consequences. Through its involvement leads to more profit and therefore also the tax liability of the company. This has been in the old "econometric models" not accepted and was probably correct.
The last reason is the complexity and constant change in tax law. This has not only achieve the object, revenue for the state, but to serve the objectives of the government. The State shall adopt taxes for good behavior, such as when you invest in renewable energies. Or if you can heat insulation measures carried out at his home. Taxing different income completely different. Five different income tax law does: as in work, income from capital and from Vemietung lease and from agriculture and forestry. The whole control law is a system of communicating vessels which will be the gefuhrwerkt constantly around. Whether the individual But change has the desired or predicted effect is nowhere related and thus deprives the review.
makes
However, no German luxury spring or quality newspaper bothered to check the quality of forecasts and estimates. As introduced Prof. Paul Kirchhof, Judge of the Federal Constitutional Court retired, its new income tax law, it sounded "cost-prohibitive" from all corners. 42 billion € 12 billion loss in the first and in each subsequent year had feared. Power in the sum of 88 billion €. These are only € 3 billion less than the small amount by which the estimators have missed 2002nd And it agrees with the Not even amount. Because the tax statistics not covered the actual income and actual profits, but only the already reduced by the deductions, the "amount". But because the comprehensive income are not known, it can not be calculated, how much additional revenue would have been. That was one reason. The other comes later.
Like so many other "modern" instruments of economic and social policy, the circle tax estimate simply useless. It is used to conceal the actual tax revenues and should do for the citizens unrecognizable, how strong the withdrawal of private funds for public Purposes increases years after year. Why the state needs more money? Especially in better times would decrease the need and yet do not rise to 50 billion €.
is to financial planning is a simple reliable measuring stick. The actual funds raised last year. They have almost a Keynesian function. If in fact more revenue, they can actually be used for debt repayment. Only in economically bad years, which fall in the tax revenues actually, as in previous years, there is a - small - deficit. But self-regulating mechanisms
dislike of politicians. They prevent maximize votes
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